(CNN) – Iran’s government is nervous and has made urgent diplomatic efforts with Middle Eastern countries to see if it can scale back Israel’s response to a missile attack earlier this month and, if that fails, help defend Tehran, sources familiar with the matter told CNN. .
Iran’s concern is uncertainty about whether it can convince Israel not to attack Iranian nuclear and oil facilities, and its most important militia in the region, Hezbollah, which has been significantly weakened by Israeli military operations in recent weeks, according to sources.
The United States is consulting with Israel on how it plans to respond to Iran’s Oct. 1 attack, and U.S. officials have made it clear that Israel does not intend to attack Iranian nuclear facilities or oil fields. US President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, their first conversation in nearly two months, saying Israel’s response must be “proportionate”.
US allies in the Gulf, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar, have expressed concern to the US about a possible attack on Iranian oil facilities, which could have negative economic and environmental consequences for the entire region, a diplomat told CNN.
The Biden administration is deeply concerned that the ongoing attacks between Iran and Israel could escalate into a major regional war involving the United States after Iran attacked what it said was its embassy in Damascus.
Fears abound as US influence over Israel appears to have waned steadily over the past year. As with its actions in Gaza, Israel has ignored US calls for greater control in Lebanon, where Israel’s intensified bombing campaign and ground offensive have killed more than 1,400 people since late last month.
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Israel failed to consult with the United States before last month’s massive attack that blew up thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah operatives, or to put in place a sophisticated cease-fire plan before the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. The United States and France offered less than 48 hours.
Israel’s defense cabinet has yet to decide how to proceed, an Israeli official told CNN on Friday. Although the gap between the US and Israel is narrowing, it doesn’t have to stay that way, a US official said.
“We can’t know if they voted or not,” a senior administration official said of Israeli cabinet discussions. The official suggested that they “can’t trust too much of the machinations” of the Israeli government.
As of last week, CNN reported that Israel had made no guarantees that it would not attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Israel has been planning attacks on Iran’s nuclear capabilities for decades, pretending to attack them in a military exercise two years ago. In recent years Israel is suspected of carrying out assassinations against Iranian nuclear scientists, and Iran’s nuclear facilities have been besieged by cyber attacks, probably from Israel, most famously the Stuxnet virus, which managed to infiltrate the Iranian nuclear facility at Natanz.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday issued a stern warning about his country’s response to Iran.
“Our attack will be powerful, precise and above all surprising. They don’t understand what happened or how it happened,” Gallant declared.
The Arab diplomat said the Gulf states generally prefer to stay out of the conflict. Iran’s neighbors are unlikely to openly come to Tehran’s defense in the event of an Israeli attack, although Iran has publicly warned that any party perceived to be aiding Israel will be considered an aggressor.
But Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have told both the United States and Iran that they will not allow Israel to use their airspace to attack Iran, an Arab diplomat and another source told CNN. Jordan will protect its airspace from any unauthorized incursions, regardless of their origin, a Jordanian official said.
The US doesn’t believe Iran wants a full-scale war with Israel, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arachi telling Al Jazeera this week that Netanyahu is “a war-monger and wants to burn the region alive.”
But the U.S. continues to press Tehran through indirect channels to calibrate its response if Israel strikes, one official said.
“We don’t know what (Iran) will do in the end, even if Qatar continues to talk to the Iranians and let the US know what they are saying,” the US official said. Key voices inside Iran will have different ideas about how to respond to Israel, but that will depend on the scale and scope of the much-anticipated Israeli action, another US official said.
The official said Iran’s messaging, both public and private, has been consistent and there has been no significant change in messaging since Tehran launched a missile attack against Israel earlier this month.
An Arab diplomat told CNN that Iran was particularly interested in getting Saudi Arabia’s help in fending off an Israeli attack and using its influence with Washington to help resolve the crisis.
Officials from each country have met three times in less than a month, and Arachi traveled to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to “discuss regional developments” and “try to stop the crimes of the Zionist regime in Lebanon and Gaza.” media.
The world is watching Israel’s every move and studying how to respond. But at least until sundown this Saturday, Israel will be paralyzed for Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement and the holiest day of the year in Judaism. While Israel is unlikely to take action, shops, restaurants and other services will be closed, public transport will not operate and even the country’s main airport, Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport, will be closed.
CNN’s Kayla Tausche, Dania Karni and Katie Bo Lillis contributed reporting.
