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Hezbollah’s tomorrow: possible candidates and methods of war

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He Lebanon it begins in a new reality. The most powerful man in the world has been killed, leaving him an orphan. Israel managed to kill the leader of Hezbollah, Hasan NasrallahThis Friday in a major bombing in Beirut. His loss not only represents a when turning to his organization and supporters, and to all Lebanese people. Although he had never held public office, the general secretary of the Lebanese army and political party was loved and hated in equal measure. Like a few other people, many feel that they have lost their father, while they are surprised what is the next step who will try to fill the great space left by Nasrallah.

Sometimes, the best way is to keep everything in the family. This seems to be the case for Hezbollah, an organization known for its low profile and lack of transparency. The first signs point Hashem Safiedinnehis cousin, as the most capable candidate to replace Nasrallah. A few days ago he said in his speech: “In our resistance, when one leader is killed, another takes the flag and continues to move forward.” new determination, confidence and strength“. This is Hezbollah’s vision of leadership. Nasrallah himself said goodbye in a final act and promised to come back to address his followers if he was still alive. Safieddine is a member of the strong Shura Council of the group, which has the power to make strong decisions and acts as a central organization, and is the leader of the organization Organization of Jihadin charge of military and security services.

Like Nasrallah, Safieddine wears the black turban that signifies grandchildren of Prophet Muhammad of Islam. His religious status is another fact that favors him to be the secretary general of Hezbollah. As his replacement, the United States Department of State appointed him as criminals in 2017. Also, Safieddine is strong relationship with Iranwhere his brother Abdalá is the representative of the group. Although he has been considered Nasrallah’s successor for many years, he is currently the group’s second-in-command and Hezbollah’s second-in-command. Naim Qassemwho only took power after the death of Nasrallah. In the coming weeks, the Shura Council is due to meet to elect a new general secretary.

The bombing continues

The assassination of Nasrallah does not leave Lebanon alone no man’s landafter 32 years and the presence of all power of the late Hezbollah leader, it also raises new questions about the steps that should be taken in the coming days. The Israeli army has been shelling the entire country without rest for almost a week, especially in the south, east and south areas of Beirut, Daiyemeans countryside in Arabic. More than 1,000 people diedwhich is their main goal, but this does not stop them. After the assassination of Nasrallah, Israeli planes have continued to attack the land of cedars, especially against Dahiye who was punished. In a fight with the leader of Hezbollah, he also died Ali Garakicommander of southern Lebanon, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran, Abbas Nilforushanand about 20 members of the group.

Also in the last hours Hezbollah has mourned the death of Nabil Qaoukwho was the head of the internal security team and a member of the executive committee. The elimination of many military leaders and two weeks of Unprecedented punches In their communication style they have created an aura of invincibility that has surrounded the group for decades. The command has been beheaded, and more than a dozen officers have been killed. Their communications have been disrupted by the bombing of their pagers and walkie talkies, and much of their equipment has been destroyed by airstrikes. “Suddenly, Hezbollah finds itself alone difficulties in his country,” says the reporter Gregg Carlstrom in ‘X’. “He has shown that he cannot protect his people, the hundreds of thousands who have now fled their homes, and he is sorry. humiliation in front of many Lebanese who were already hostile to the group,” he says.

Israel’s deep penetration

“Hezbollah has accepted massive damage to its military infrastructure since creation,” he says. Hanin Ghaddarsenior fellow at the Washington Institute and author of ‘Hizbullahland’. But the team still retains its talented commanders, as well as many of its powerful weapons, including straight throws and some long throws which could cause significant damage to Israeli military and civilian populations. The angry and angry members of Hezbollah want something more than a symbolic responseas has been done up to now, and perhaps will put pressure on them to be used, before they are destroyed again. “By killing Nasrallah, the Israelis showed their willingness to escalate the conflict in Lebanon to an unprecedented level,” he writes. Michael Youngexecutive editor del Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.

Israel’s deep involvement in Hezbollah ended Nasrallah’s life after the establishment of more than 80 bombs in a few minutes, according to Israeli officials. With the Lebanese army so weak, Tel Aviv may see it as a good time to start attack the country from the south of Lebanon, since the disruption of his leadership would mean resistance. But Hezbollah has been training for 18 years, since the 2006 war, to fight in the next one. In his last words before his death, Nasrallah called the country a “old chance”. The future of the group and the Lebanese is unknown, but, on the other side of the border, the Israelis do not rest easily with the projectiles that are launched in their territory and the sound of the pilot’s sirens that also accompany their lives.

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