(CNN)-Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is now entering its third month, with dozens of settlements still firmly under its control.
The move marked the first entry of foreign troops into Russian territory since World War II, embarrassing the Kremlin and showing pro-Kiev supporters and the rest of the world that the Ukrainian military is not always on the defensive.
After nine weeks, the Ukrainian advance has stalled, with no significant advances or counterattacks made by either side in recent days.
The outcome of the game is unclear. Analysts believe Kiev is using its initial push as a morale booster and possible bargaining chip as Russian President Vladimir Putin tries to downplay the full infiltration and limit the resources he can devote to countering it.
According to the latest estimate by the Washington, DC think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukraine’s Kursk covers an area of about 786 square kilometers.
“Russian advances are happening especially on the flanks of our feet,” Dmytro, the commander of the Ukrainian battalion inside Kursk, told CNN this Wednesday, using the nickname “Kolot,” which means cold. “They keep trying to advance, but progress is gradual; at one point they manage to take a street in the city. But it goes both ways: we fight back and push them back.
The main Ukrainian foothold is around the Russian city of Chudja, and its army is trying to establish a second base around the village of Veselo. Ukraine has not disclosed how many troops it has sent to the region.
Russia has sent a fair number of troops to defend and counterattack, estimated at 40,000 troops.
“It’s like digging through sofa cushions to find some loose change,” Galeotti, a research fellow at the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told CNN.
Moscow still deploys experienced forces, but not as many resources as the Russian citizens in Kursk would like.
Russian officials say more than 100,000 civilians have been displaced as fighting continues in the region, with many more living behind Ukrainian borders.
“Over time, the Kursk operation has normalized to a certain extent,” Galiotti said. “We shouldn’t assume that the Russians accepted it … I think Putin was able to postpone the investigation, but I don’t think he completely let it go.”
Russia is trying to avoid diverting resources from the front lines of a large-scale invasion of Ukraine to fight in Kursk.
While the test initially came as a shock to the government and ordinary Russians, “the Kremlin underestimated it,” says John Luff, a research fellow at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Program. “The strategy is to distract people from what happened, which is undoubtedly a huge shame, and to create the impression that it’s not serious.”
Putin’s government has called it an “infiltration” and has even downplayed its counterattack as an “anti-terrorist mission.”
A Russian military blogger put it bluntly: “Most of Russia is already used to fighting near Kursk…People who have nothing to do with what’s happening in the Kursk area will be very slow.”
According to the Ukrainian commander, the front lines barely moved, but the fighting was apparently fierce, with Russian forces deploying numerous drones, artillery and aerial bombardments.
The commander of the Ukrainian “Kolot” battalion announced: “If they think we have troops there, they will not hesitate to bomb the tree. He says that Russia has now sent powerful troops and combat brigades to the place where his unit is fighting in Kursk, and the Russian countermeasures are caused by Ukrainian attacks with drones and mines. Argued that the attack was slowed down.
The raid on Kursk had several objectives, including, according to analysts, a telling victory for Ukraine.
“The goal was to demonstrate to Ukraine’s Western allies that the Russians are vulnerable and that there are limits to their combat potential,” Loaf said, adding that the test highlighted “Russia’s red lines are rhetorical.”
It also gave Ukrainians morale. Several soldiers who spoke to CNN in September said that despite the casualties and difficulty of the operation, it was worth the fight to give Russia a taste of its own medicine.
However, Ukraine’s goal of diverting troops from the eastern front towards Kursk has so far failed.
According to experts, Kursk could be a bargaining chip for future negotiations.
“By taking this territory, they immediately ruled out the possibility that both the Russians and the Western allies would say, ‘Now is the time to stop. Let’s have a cease-fire,'” Love said.
Meanwhile, the main focus of the war is on the edges of Ukraine’s eastern region of Donbass, where its troops are fighting to retain control of the strategic city of Pokrovsk.
Instead of focusing on liberating its own territory, the Russian military has expanded its offensive on several fronts in Ukraine, including key areas in Kharkiv, Donetsk and Zaporizhia.
“Regardless of losses, it appears to be a very high priority for the Kremlin to make as much progress as possible in the Donbass,” Love added. “There’s kind of a window that’s going to close because you’re going to get into this year where the roads are going to be muddy.”
Russia’s daily attacks against Ukraine continued this Thursday, with several deaths in the Odesa, Kherson and Donetsk regions.
